Garmaine Staff asked 1 year ago

While the naive but perfectly valid question Are they building on mars or do they have a camp there? was closed and overly downvoted, I think my answer there was reasonable; the perception by the lay public that people are going to be camped on Mars any day now was probably fueled in part by the Mars One "scam" as astronaut Chris Hadfield is quoted there calling it.

But this comment suggested that just because of that it doesn't mean that there aren't somewhat credible plans to move people there in the works:

I think you are aware of Starship. SpaceX is currently building and testing prototypes of a spacecraft capable of landing 100+ t on Mars, and plan on starting a colonization project within the next few synods. And the robotic probes around and on the surface of Mars are a valuable source of information guiding their efforts.

I just checked out Ars Technica's Inside Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week—and settle Mars. The article is longish and explores several aspects of the reality of the effort, and contains nine instances of the words "fast" or "faster".

Theres not much on the expected timeline though, except for this nugget:

“I’ll probably be long dead before Mars becomes self-sustaining, but I’d like to at least be around to see a bunch of ships land on Mars,” Musk said.

Question: Have SpaceX, Elon Musk, or other at least fairly authoritative scholars of this effort said anything more specific about roughly how long it will be before this work will result in people landing on mars and setting up camp?

Potentially helpful: Ars Technica's SpaceX releases a Payload User’s Guide for its Starship rocket